It was 60 days ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
