A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
